A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
